Gold on HIGH WAY more records, tops $1,225
TOKYO — Gold futures extended their record climb in electronic trading Thursday in Asia, jumping to a fresh all-time high above $1,225 an ounce, as investment demand continued to strengthen.
“Gold continues to defy gravity and for good reasons: The shift out of fiat currency such as the dollar is happening at a swifter pace than most imagined it would,” said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International.
“We are hearing rumors that Germany will be coming in soon to purchase gold, and while China is talking about gold being in a bubble atmosphere, they are most likely getting ready to increase their reserves from their tiny 2% of reserves to at least 4% in gold,” he said.
Gold for December delivery rose as high as $1,226.20 an ounce on Globex, yet another fresh record. It was up $13.90 at $1,225.90 by the afternoon in Tokyo.
December gold had earlier closed up $12.90, or 1.1%, at $1,212 an ounce in Wednesday trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold futures on Comex have soared 37% this year, and have made gains in 17 out of the past 20 weeks. They advanced in all but two trading sessions in November.
Strong Way drive
“The most recent move in the gold price builds on the sharp rise that started in November driven by the announcement that India will buy 200 metric tons ($7 billion) of [International Monetary Fund] gold,” Daniel Wills, senior analyst at ETF Securities, said in a statement.
“Many market participants view this purchase as just the tip of the iceberg, with China, Russia and other central banks also indicating their intention to build up gold holdings as part of their strategy to diversify away from the U.S. dollar,” he said.
“Gold is being viewed as one of the primary alternatives to holding paper currency, and the gold price has become a key barometer of investor confidence in government policies,” Wills said.
At the same time, Dubai’s debt woes have helped spur the realization that the danger for investors is not just that companies or banks could fail, “but that eventually entire states/nations may be at risk on the ground of escalating debt, escalating budget deficits,” said Martin Hennecke, associate director at Tyche Group Ltd.
Some still bearish to come
Despite gold’s spectacular bull run, there are some who remain skeptical that the gains will last.
“I cannot think of, nor have I read of, any coherent economic reason for gold at this level,” said William Gamble, president of Emerging Market Strategies in Rhode Island. “Gold has climbed too far, too fast.”
He believes that gold is “a massive bubble, fueled mainly by [exchange-traded funds’] speculation dominating a small market, with help from developing countries trying to diversify out of dollars.”
“Governments must raise $12 trillion next year, so interest rates will have to rise along with the dollar, which should deflate the gold bubble,” he said.
Hu Xiaolian, deputy governor at the People’s Bank of China, was quoted in a Reuters report as saying China must keep in mind the long-term effects when considering what to use in its reserves.
She told reporters in Taipei that Beijing needs to “watch out for bubbles forming on certain assets,” according to Reuters.
Hu’s comments offer a “good reason” why the central bank might not be a buyer, said Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
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